When will the next recession happen?

My gut feeling is the the demand for housing will decrease because mortgage interest rates are so high. That will create an oversupply of homes on the market which will result in lower housing prices.

We aren’t going to create an oversupply anytime soon. The first time market is still very tight, but we do see some softness in the 2nd home and vacation market in our target areas. We just put a SFR property on the market after being a rental for 22 years and it went under contract in 5 days.

I’ve never disputed an international transaction…does it work the same way? Do they have different charge back laws or time frames ?

Youd think that but experts say there is still a housing shortage and will be a decade until builders catch up. I just sold my house, figured id get 500k a year ago when i started thinking about selling. I sold it for 650k and nearly walked away with 500k.

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I’m beginning to think tha the original question of this thread just won’t age to effing well…

I never have either, but just safer than debit card. I also had to out a $400 hold for my hotel room. Didn’t want that ok my debi card.

I hope the link is right.

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The problem is how do we define recession.

The Democrats define it the same way they define woman.

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Sounds like they could exercise a little better personal responsibility. I took a personal finance course several years ago ant the teacher had said “when times get rough, get rid of cable, pets and beer”. In other words…while things are so horrible (I wish you could have been around in the late 70’s) there is something we used to do called “tightening the belt”.

How many people are trying to maintain the same lifesytle. Don’t have enough for groceries? Give up a couple of streaming services. Pack a lunch and take it to work. Eat more chicken instead of beef, give up beer and soft drink. Drink tap water instead of bottled water. Quit the daily Starbucks run. Is it fun? Nope. But 6% inflation doesn’t mean you can’t eat. It means you can’t eat OUT as often. It means you need to look for sale items at the grocery store instead of grabbing the usual. If it’s really dire, consider public transportation. Here in KC the busses are free. That saves a shitload of gas money.

IT’s possible to get by without going into debt. But if it’s really tough (I lived under 12% inflation when I earned the lowest pay in my life) then you have to reevaluate your “must haves” and “nice to haves”. I wonder how many of these people don’t think twice about handing their credit card to the barista for their $7 cup of coffee. If you do that every day you go to work, you spend almost $2,000 a year. I pay less than $10 for a pound of coffee that lasts me a month. So I “save” $1900.

When our second kid was born we decided to cut back on things like cable.
My wife spent the first six weeks home and was fine.
I spent the next three weeks and had cable hooked up two days after being home alone

There’s always been irresponsible people that spend more than they make and try to keep up with the Joneses, but over the last few years more and more responsible people can’t make ends meet because of the economy. I hear about it more because I listen to NPR every day and they have a lot of stories about young adults, seniors, couples and single mothers being left behind because of the economy. They’ll feature a young woman who is making decent money but has student loans, her rent just got increased, she’s spending $100 more a month on basic groceries, spending $75 more a month on gas, etc and she’s falling behind. Then they’ll do a story on seniors having to share an apartment because they can’t afford to live alone, or giving up their car because they can’t afford it and now have trouble getting around, or had to move in with one of their kids because of the economy.

A lot of people who were doing things right and were getting by are now struggling.

We were going to use cloth diapers to save money, that lasted almost a month. Twenty three years later and my wife still has a few left she uses for dusting the furniture.

One more time - if you can’t maintain the lifestyle you have you might have to make some sacrifices. And…having lived thru 12% inflation, I am calling bullshit on a couple of years of an average of 6% inflation as ruining lives. If I was paying $100 for groceries and there is even 10% inflation, my grocery bill went up by $10. If that has such a negative impact then you need to find something you can cut to cover that increase. If groceries end up costing me $50 a month more, then consider dropping one of the streaming services. If you are spending $20 a week on beer - give it up for a while. IF you have that morning Starbucks - brew your own or use the coffee pot at work. Then there is phase 2…If your employer knows about the inflation but doesn’t increase your pay, then start hunting for another job.

Parrot brought cable back after having cut it as part of a cost cutting program. But I wonder…if he had to choose between feeding his family or watching cable - would he still have added cable back? I think he’d sacrifice cable for his family. But how many people who are charging the shit out of their credit cards over 6% inflation are doing NOTHING to cut spending elsewhere in their budget?

That’s why the personal finance instructor said when times get tough, get rid of the cable, beer and the pets. How many people are struggling yet put the 12 pack of beer on the counter at $15 a week because they have always done that? That’s $800 a year that they could save. What about TV habits. Youtube TV is $73 per month…add other streaming services and you can 'nickle and dime" your way to $150 per month for television. If you are a football fan and spring for the NFL Sunday ticket at $450 per year - cancel it and go to a local sports bar. Have a beer (that you were buying at home anyway) and watch the game. If you have been going to fast food for lunch every day and a lunch costs $10, there is another $50 per week you could save.

While cutting out life’s luxuries sucks, if inflation that was 6% (but is now 3%) sends you to the poor house, and you are unwilling to cut out the “nice to haves”, then a lot of it is “poor choices”

For what it’s worth. When I started driving in 1975, gas was about .25 cents a gallon. By 1980 it was a dollar a gallon. I was making the least I ever made then. Yet I somehow survived. So life could be a lot worse that 6% inflation.

It sounds like these people have nothing to cut, but they were getting by a few years ago.

I do agree a lot of people live beyond their means, but that’s their choice and if they don’t have a pot to piss in it’s on them.

I don’t know what to tell you. I have a zero balance on my credit cards. Had I not taken money out of my IRA to pay for some home improvements I would be in the 10% tax bracket. And for some odd reason, I’m not hurting. My retirement income for now is social security and a small pension. So you’d think that I would be one of these statistics. I have a fair amount in an IRA that I won’t need to touch for about another 6 years, and even then, only because the government will force me to. Granted, I don’t live a lavish lifestyle, but I am comfortable and I earn enough to go on bicycle adventures almost every day instead of going to work.

What I find interesting though is that the NPR article cites people who rely on social security for their retirement. Had it not been “Bidenflation” you’d be calling it poor choices and telling them that 401k’s have been around for almost 50 years and you should have opened one.

We can’t blame any president for those who rely on SS alone for their retirement.

FDR

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Do you really think that?

I personally like to blame more recently dead presidents for my financial situation, specifically Bush and Reagan. FDR was long dead before I started doing dumb financial shit.

Well, he created it, but everyone after him fucked it up