I am growing more pessimistic by the day that we are nearing a major shift.
Inflation continues to erode spending. Several companies are expressing concern about spending and they are lowering analyst expectations. Automakers, airlines, appliances are all lowers expectations.
If the fed comes out and announces they are dropping rates, do you think this would mitigate some of this? Are people just waiting to buy a house when rates drop or is their savings depleted by the time this happens?
Define recession.
Well if history is any indicator, weâll probably have to wait for the next GOP administration, which I hope will be⌠NEVER!!!
Thereâs the official definition and thereâs what feels like a recession to people personally.
I was referring to the fact that the Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) tried to ignore the last recession by redefining the term.
A lot of people have gone through their savings and are racking up their credit card debt at almost 30% interest, a lot of people wonât have anything left to spend.
I think the last official recession was in spring 2020 when Covid started shutting everything down, it was also one of the shortest recessions, 2 or 3 months.
If you canât make it to the next payday because of inflation you really donât care what they call it, you are in a fucked situation.
No, the last recession was in 2022, no matter what the Orwellian media tries to say.
U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession? : NPR
True but a lot of people never had much anyway. Several years ago, something like 60% couldnât cover a $400 unexpected expense. I think these people were just getting by. I think what we are currently seeing is 60% canât cover their necessary expenses.
I was at my wifeâs work the other day and they have care credit for people that canât afford the unexpected pet expenses. I was floored that they charge 33% interest. Many people use this. My wife euthanized a family pet because the woman decided she needed to put her kids first above the vet bill to save the dog. This is happening more and more recently.
Given the labor shortage, I donât see the next recession resulting in mass layoffs but I could be wrong. Maybe wage and benefit cuts??? There will be a mismatch in labor force. Maybe too many bankers and not enough plumbers.
We have used Care Credit in the past and they almost always have a 6/12/18 month no interest option.
However, they are run by Syncrony, and they are the 100% most ignorant financial company I have ever dealt with. They literally didnât know how to take an early payment.
Read your link and the answer seems to be ânoâ. 2 months of smallish negative growth do not a recession make, only in most narrow, and incorrect sense of the word. Wages are still rising, jobs are being created, inflation is falling. Weâre beating the shit out of the rest of the world.
But, if the Fed keeps itâs foot on the brake much longer, the outlook could change. And Iâd call that something triggered by GOP type thinking.
I intentionally used that link to prove my point of the media going full Orwell.
I am surprised that Winson Smith wasnât given partial credit for the article.
It is always how we have defined a recession. Only in communist land does we change the meaning to make Biden look good
WellâŚif I might point outâŚSynchrony Bank handles a LOT of the âsame as cashâ offers. They didnât start under Biden. I have used them for windows, flooring, bikes, tires and a root canalâŚsome of those dating back to the glory days of Trump. And they are VERY clear that if you donât pay it off in the time frame, ALL of the accrued interest will be added back to the loan and it will have a rate of 28% or more.
Now I know one poster who is concerned about people paying 30% interest because of BidenflationâŚbut is very quick to blame the borrowers in 2008 for ânot reading their mortgageâ to discover that it would adjust. But how many of those folks paying 30% are doing so because they didnât read THEIR agreement? I mean, even though I had one of these cards for a root canal and had $1200 on it, the minimum payment was $39. Could it be that some of these people were those âminimum paymentâ folks, or is it still Bidenâs fault?
Another possibility is that they had some pretty shitty credit to start with. I have a USAA Visa and AMEX card and my interest rate is 13%. Granted, my FICO score is over 800. But if you have 30% interest and a Republican was president, they would get the âpersonal responsibilityâ lecture.
Bottom line, the outrageous interest rate programs have been around a while. I bought my bike in March 2020 and while mortgage rates were that delicious Trump 3.5%, the rate if I didnât pay that off within the specified time was 29%. AND all the accrued interst was added back in to the loan.
And FWIW, while synchrony has itâs share of issues, taking early or extra payments wasnât an issue for me.
I never said they did.
I donât think anyone else did either.
Of course you are, think youâve been fearing a recession for years now. The consumer remains strong, companies strong, full employment, inflation coming down, GDP is stronger than forecast.
Having said that, if I could accurately predict a recession I wouldnât be hanging out with you guys. Itâs anybodyâs guess but if the economy does shrink itâll be short lived because weâre at full employment and companies are lean and profitable.
Bears seems to imply taht 30% credit card rates are unique to this recessionâŚaka âBidenflationâ. Just wanted to point out that while some folks might be using cards, some of the reasons for a high interest rate might be due to a shortfall in personal responsibility.
I need people to pay 30% interest. Keeps my bank profits high and pay for my travel perks.
People are using their credit cards to pay basic living expenses BECAUSE of inflation. The rates are 30% BECAUSE of inflation. Over the last few years a lot of people have pissed away their savings and are living on the Visa, I could post links showing that if youâd like.