What is a recession?

Agreed, which is why it is good that someone who actually understands economics is in charge.
What you consider “seat of the pants” assumes that there isn’t a contingent plan depending on what others do.

There’s every indication that is the case. The president has the attention span of a fruit fly.

The actual economic data is the indication that he actually does know what he is doing.

Most of the MAGA-ots claim economic recession throughout most of Biden’s term, whoops!

HUH???
Just early 2022, according to the data.

Huh?

It just felt like a recession to 90% of the country under Bidenomics with record inflation and no end in sight, the economy was a HUGE reason democrats got their asses kicked last year.

Geeze thinks 9% inflation was great for the poor and middle class, but there was no recession.

What I hear being said is that lefties aren’t happy that Trump has the authority to make unilateral tariff decisions — the same authority every president has had for decades.

I’d tell them to take it up with their congressional rep and senators.

I don’t especially love the idea of any POTUS having that much power, and certainly not indefinitely. But I trust Trump to manage that stuff a thousand times more than I trust anyone else at this point — even Rand Paul or Thomas Massie, if they were hypothetical presidents.

So, until Congress enacts legislation to fix this (which will happen when pigs fly), I’ll take what I can get for the next 3.5 years.

This is the political definition of recession, taken from how Justice Potter Stewart’s defined pornography - I can’t define a recession but I know it I when I see it. When a Dem is Prez, a recession is invisible. Other times, it’s always visible.

He is exceeding the authority Congress gave him, but they have no appetite to challenge him on it.

But you’re right that they have handed over too much of their authority to the executive.

We have always been at war with Eastasia.

The big GDP is driven by MASSIVE AI data centers.

I read a story and here is the highlights from the ChatGPT. Basically AI datacenters contributed to more total GDP growth than ALL of Consumer spending. Let that sink in.

how much of 2Q-2025 GDP growth was from AI datacenter capex? How does this compare to consumer spending?

ChatGPT said:

Thought for 21 seconds

In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. real GDP rose at a 3.0 percent annualized rate.

  • AI datacenter capex
    According to Reuters, heightened capital spending on AI-related data centers, GPUs, server infrastructure and supporting hardware “accounts for more than one-third of this year’s second-quarter U.S. GDP growth.” One-third of a 3.0 percent gain is 1.0 percentage point, so AI datacenter capex contributed slightly over 1.0 pp to the 3.0 percent growth rate ReutersBureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Consumer spending
    By comparison, personal consumption expenditures added 0.98 percentage points to GDP growth in Q2 2025 Advisor Perspectives.

Summary: AI datacenter capex contributed just over 1.0 pp of the 3.0 percent annualized growth—slightly edging out consumer spending, which accounted for about 0.98 pp.

Hmmm…
Just got finished with an AI webinar.

AI is coming quick. I am of the opinion that it is going to cause big job loss in white collar jobs.

My kid is on a team at work that’s implementing AI into everything his company does and they’re still hiring like crazy. It may replace some jobs but there is also a lot of growth because of AI.

I have been using AI for a couple of weeks. It is very impressive on how powerful it is.

I agree there are jobs in AI for companies to implement AI. This will likely come at the expense of several lower level jobs in accounting, finance, legal, HR, etc.

There are about to be more millionaires and billionaires created in the next 5 years than anytime previously in history.

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Oh boy, that will piss off underachieving lefties who hate anyone that has more than they do.

He has been predicting stagflation since Trump took office in January.

Stand on any street corner yelling “There is going to be a bad car accident!” Eventually you will be right.

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Give it time. :slightly_smiling_face: