# Dow just hit 30k, taking a lot of chips off the table

**URL:** <https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652>\
**Category:** Money\
**Created:** [November 24, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652 "2020-11-24T16:54:12Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/wintermute/32/35_2.png) [@Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Wintermute)\
**Post date:** [November 26, 2020, 12:02am UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/21 "2020-11-26T00:02:52Z")

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> [@jimtoo](#):
>
> My suspicion is that it may be too little too late

That is a shame. Many states went in very heavy handed and killed the small business. Their answer was use DoorDash but they consume all the profit.

I am not say I know the right answer but I will tell you we picked the worst options.

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**Author:** ![Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/wintermute/32/35_2.png) [@Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Wintermute)\
**Post date:** [November 26, 2020, 4:26am UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/23 "2020-11-26T04:26:54Z")

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> [@sgtFriday](#):
>
> I’m not anything close to a genius in the area of economics, but even I can understand that. Conserving cheap water while the house burns makes no sense at all.

You want to conserve some in case they need another round.

I believe the vaccine will work but we don’t know. It may fail horribly. People may not take it. It may wear off quickly.

Lots of unknowns. I personally like giving money to company who pay their employees fully. That way when we recover, they have jobs and the money keep their benefits etc. there isn’t a “rehire process”. It’s back to work. They still expect a V recovery but I don’t see it but it’s not my wheelhouse.

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**Author:** ![BMWMTBer](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/bmwmtber/32/5106_2.png) [@BMWMTBer](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/BMWMTBer)\
**Post date:** [November 26, 2020, 12:47pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/24 "2020-11-26T12:47:42Z")

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> [@Wintermute](#):
>
> You want to conserve some in case they need another round.
> 
> I believe the vaccine will work but we don’t know. It may fail horribly. People may not take it. It may wear off quickly.

That was the concern about a tax cut in 2017 when economy was kicking butt…we need to save those cuts for when things turn to shit. Now the middle class portion of that cut is set to expire in 2021, of course the corporate cuts are permanent (I think).

There seems to be recent uptick in approval of a vaccine, 90+% effectiveness is probably a good reason why. I’ll absolutely take the vaccine when it’s my turn, I’ve got a few high risk people in my life and I want to fly abroad again.

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**Author:** ![BMWMTBer](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/bmwmtber/32/5106_2.png) [@BMWMTBer](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/BMWMTBer)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/25 "2020-12-03T18:56:25Z")

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Sure enough, Royal Caribbean is up $6 from where I sold half of it and my 401k would be up 1.5% had a stayed in small caps. So what I’m sayin is, don’t follow my financial advice.

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**Author:** ![Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/wintermute/32/35_2.png) [@Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Wintermute)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 7:40pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/26 "2020-12-03T19:40:20Z")

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> [@BMWMTBer](#):
>
> Sure enough, Royal Caribbean is up $6 from where I sold half of it and my 401k would be up 1.5% had a stayed in small caps. So what I’m sayin is, don’t follow my financial advice.

I think it’ll go down soon.

I actually own a fair amount of RC. You get a discount if you own stock.

They’re taking on more debt to survive. That’ll hit them at some point

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**Author:** ![BMWMTBer](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/bmwmtber/32/5106_2.png) [@BMWMTBer](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/BMWMTBer)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 8:42pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/27 "2020-12-03T20:42:08Z")

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> [@Wintermute](#):
>
> I actually own a fair amount of RC. You get a discount if you own stock.

You get on board credit with as little as 100 shares, the amount depends upon your stateroom category. I’ve still got a little bit of it and have no real regrets trimming half of my shares.

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**Author:** ![Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/wintermute/32/35_2.png) [@Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Wintermute)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2020, 8:46pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/28 "2020-12-03T20:46:30Z")

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> [@BMWMTBer](#):
>
> You get on board credit with as little as 100 shares, the amount depends upon your stateroom category. I’ve still got a little bit of it and have no real regrets trimming half of my shares.

I expect a large portion of stocks to have a drop next year. Companies are taking on more debt because of the pandemic. As Biden tries to increase taxes that will prevent them from servicing their debt.

Biden had to come up with a way to allow companies to pay down debt and increase taxes. That isn’t a easy feat.

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**Author:** ![Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/87869e/32.png) [@Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Henrius)\
**Post date:** [December 31, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/29 "2020-12-31T19:32:12Z")

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The highest correlation to stock prices is the Fed balance sheet.The Fed is the major mover for asset prices. Beware.

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**Author:** ![brobbs](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/brobbs/32/4993_2.png) [@brobbs](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/brobbs)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 12:33am UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/30 "2021-01-01T00:33:09Z")

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> [@BMWMTBer](#):
>
> and my 401k would be up 1.5% had a stayed in small caps

Seeing small caps recover as vibrantly as they did was my biggest financial surprise this year.

Shows me things might not be as bad as they seem for small biz.

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**Author:** ![Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/87869e/32.png) [@Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Henrius)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 4:02pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/31 "2021-01-01T16:02:55Z")

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> [@brobbs](#):
>
> Shows me things might not be as bad as they seem for small biz.

Publicly-traded small business and privately held small business are two different things entirely.

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**Author:** ![Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/87869e/32.png) [@Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Henrius)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 4:06pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/32 "2021-01-01T16:06:05Z")

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> [@BMWMTBer](#):
>
> It’s gonna suck for many but I’m not sure if stimulus helps these people or just boosts the stock market.

Any Fed debt monetization boost asset prices like the stock market, as well as eventually consumer prices. There is no way around it. And increases wealth inequality, but that is a different story for a different time.

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**Author:** ![Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/87869e/32.png) [@Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Henrius)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 4:09pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/33 "2021-01-01T16:09:18Z")

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> [@BMWMTBer](#):
>
> Personally I think the country doesn’t need more stimulus but I certainly wouldn’t mind the bump it provides my remaining holdings if it happens. If the fundamentals remain solid, Q2 and Q3 will be big quarters.

As stupid as US governors have been with lockdowns, foreign governments have been even more stringent, and destroyed more businesses. The one glimmer of hope is US recovery might lead the world. Servicing all the increased corporate debt, however, will be a big problem.

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**Author:** ![brobbs](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/brobbs/32/4993_2.png) [@brobbs](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/brobbs)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 4:09pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/34 "2021-01-01T16:09:39Z")

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> [@Henrius](#):
>
> Publicly-traded small business and privately held small business are two different things entirely.

Excellent point

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**Author:** ![Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/87869e/32.png) [@Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Henrius)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 4:12pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/35 "2021-01-01T16:12:12Z")

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> [@sgtFriday](#):
>
> Not much for folks out of work, etc.

And here is another job killer coming down the pike: federal mandated minimum wage hikes. That will add to the reticence of hiring the unemployed. Plays good to the economically illiterate voter base, however.

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**Author:** ![brobbs](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/brobbs/32/4993_2.png) [@brobbs](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/brobbs)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 4:42pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/36 "2021-01-01T16:42:39Z")

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> [@Henrius](#):
>
> And here is another job killer coming down the pike: federal mandated minimum wage hikes.

American minimum wage is a fantastic permanent stimulus for China’s economy. Great job, leftists 👍 👍

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**Author:** ![mcarley](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/mcarley/32/5644_2.png) [@mcarley](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/mcarley)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 5:30pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/37 "2021-01-01T17:30:10Z")

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> [@Henrius](#):
>
> And here is another job killer coming down the pike: federal mandated minimum wage hikes. That will add to the reticence of hiring the unemployed. Plays good to the economically illiterate voter base, however.

The federal minimum wage hasn’t changed since 2009. Twelve years. And it won’t change any time soon unless Dems take the Senate. Not sure they’ll prioritize it even then.

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**Author:** ![Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/wintermute/32/35_2.png) [@Wintermute](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Wintermute)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 5:32pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/38 "2021-01-01T17:32:45Z")

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> [@mcarley](#):
>
> The federal minimum wage hasn’t changed since 2009. Twelve years. And it won’t change any time soon unless Dems take the Senate. Not sure they’ll prioritize it even then

They need to tie it to inflation. That Way it raises every year. No debates. No nothing.

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**Author:** ![mcarley](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/mcarley/32/5644_2.png) [@mcarley](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/mcarley)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 6:22pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/39 "2021-01-01T18:22:46Z")

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> [@Henrius](#):
>
> Publicly-traded small business and privately held small business are two different things entirely.

True. What’s the easiest quick metric of the health of that group?

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**Author:** ![jimtoo](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/user_avatar/discourse.thelastforum.com/jimtoo/32/16415_2.png) [@jimtoo](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/jimtoo)\
**Post date:** [January 1, 2021, 6:43pm UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/40 "2021-01-01T18:43:23Z")

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There are mutual finds and ETFs that invest in small caps. You have to look at the underlying holdings, though, as there are different criteria used like value or growth, size, etc. DWS is a total market small cap index. The Russell 200 is also a small cap index. I has a small cap Fidelity fund but sold it earlier this year.

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**Author:** ![Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/h/87869e/32.png) [@Henrius](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/u/Henrius)\
**Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 12:51am UTC](https://discourse.thelastforum.com/t/dow-just-hit-30k-taking-a-lot-of-chips-off-the-table/4652/41 "2021-01-02T00:51:31Z")

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> [@mcarley](#):
>
> True. What’s the easiest quick metric of the health of that group?

No metric that I know of, since they are unlisted companies with no public information disclosure required. How can anyone besides me know how my businesses are faring?

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